Analysis
How a claim spreads
Follow a claim from its first source to the headlines. Each tree shows where it started, who repeated it, whether they said who was claiming it, and what contradicts it.
Most of the claims we check do not start as headlines. They start with one person: an unnamed official, a militia commander, two residents of a town, an anonymous account. What turns them into news is the chain of outlets that repeat them, and what each one does with the words “witnesses say”.
These trees follow that chain. Read each one from the top. Every point is a real publication, with the time it appeared, the exact words it used and a link to it. Where we have checked a link in the chain, the verdict is shown beside it.
- Where it starts
- Attributed
- Stated as fact
- Wrong photo or caption
- Words nobody said
- Contradicting evidence
One anonymous source, three citations
How an unnamed source’s claim that Ethiopian troops took an Eritrean village near Assab reached a European situation report, an intelligence service and Wikipedia in a day, while the same outlet’s own local sources said it never happened.
An unnamed “source close to Ethiopian federal government”
Says Ethiopian troops crossed into Eritrea after “mechanized fighting near the Bure front” and took control of Daba Sima, about 50 km from Assab.
UMD Media
“Reports: Ethiopian Forces Cross into Eritrea, Take Control of Strategic Locality Near Assab Following Mechanized Fighting”
Says it “has not independently verified the reported territorial advance”.
EEPA situation report (Brussels)
“ENDF troops crossed into Eritrea on 11 October, according to unverified reports, taking control of Daba Sima”
Links to UMD Media. Names no other source.
RANE Worldview (intelligence analysis)
“Horn of Africa: Eritrea Accuses Ethiopia of Declaring War Amid Border Clashes South of Assab”
The headline states the clashes as fact; the text attributes the claim to UMD Media.
Wikipedia, “2026 Ethiopian offensive”
Says an Ethiopian government source told UMD Media that Ethiopian forces occupied Deba Sima on 11 October.
UMD Media, quoting local sources in Afar
“are not even close to the Bure frontline itself”
The same outlet’s sources in Bure dismiss the first report. The first report was not withdrawn.
A label becomes “clear evidence”
Photos of crates and electronics, with a label addressed to a Tigrayan charity in Washington, travelled from an anonymous account to a diplomat’s post tagging the UN Secretary-General as “clear evidences of ammunition … smuggled by Eritrea”.
Photos of wooden crates and boxed electronics
“CONSIGNEE: TDANA / PORT OF DESTINATION: Asmara, Eritrea”
Where and when they were taken is not stated anywhere. No ammunition is visible in them.
Pulp Faction (@DanielsonKassa1), anonymous X account
“The crate says it all … a large cache of TPLF weapons smuggled through Eritrea … It’s confirmed”
18,620 viewsSource
Zerihun Megersa Jima, Ethiopia’s consul general in Dubai
“Pictured below are clear evidences of ammunition captured in Tigray smuggled by Eritrea. Thousands of soldiers were also apprehended inside Tigray.”
Tags the UN Secretary-General.
5,515 viewsSource
Tigray Development Association in North America (TDANA)
“TDANA has never used Asmara as a port to ship merchandise, as alleged.”
The charity named on the label, in a signed statement.
“Witnesses say” goes missing
Four sources, none independent of the war and none verified by the outlets that quoted them, became headlines stating that Eritrean troops had crossed into Tigray, then the wrong photos, then a statement nobody made.
Two residents of Adigrat, to Reuters
Said they saw trucks of soldiers they identified as Eritrean. Reuters said it could not verify their accounts.
Reuters
“Eritrean troops drive through northern Ethiopian town, witnesses say”
81,093 views on XSource
Residents of Adigrat, to the BBC
The BBC said it “has not yet been able to independently verify any of the reported troop movements”.
BBC News (World) on X
“Eritrean troops move deep into Ethiopia’s Tigray region as fighting escalates”
The article’s own headline ended “residents tell BBC”. The post dropped it.
1,340,164 viewsSource
BBC News
“Ethiopia warns Eritrea it will defend itself after troops cross border”
Channel 4 News
“Horn of Africa crisis: Why is Eritrea invading Ethiopia?”
The next morning Channel 4 said the report’s opening footage “was not current” and took it down.
The New Humanitarian
“Eritrean forces crossed the border, and Ethiopia hit back with two days of drone strikes”
An unnamed local official and residents, to AFP
The Express Tribune
“Eritrean troops deployed in Ethiopia’s Tigray region”
Caption on a Reuters photo of an Ethiopian army vehicle in Mekelle.
DW
“Various sources have confirmed the presence of Eritrean armed forces in Ethiopia.”
The one source it names is AFP’s single anonymous estimate.
A commander of the Tigray Peace Force, a militia on the government’s side, “citing reports from his personnel”
AP said it could not verify his account.
Associated Press
“Eritrean soldiers entered northern Ethiopian towns, government-allied commander says”
NBC News
“Eritrean troops cross into northern Ethiopia as conflict escalates”
Under a photo of pro-government Tigray Peace Force fighters, captioned “Tigrayan opposition fighters”.
Associated Press, rewritten
“Eritrean forces seen entering towns in Ethiopia’s Tigray region after crossing border”
ACLED, a conflict monitor that named no sources
Reported drone strikes on Eritrean vehicles near Adigrat, “believed” to be Ethiopian.
Reuters
“Drones target Eritrean troops inside Ethiopia, conflict monitor says”
“Reuters could not independently verify the information.”
The Guardian
“Ethiopia launches drone attack against Eritrean troops who crossed into Tigray”
Outlook India
“Ethiopia Launches Drone Attack Against Eritrean Troops”
Illustrated with an AP photo taken in Mocha, Yemen, in February 2018.
Al Jazeera
“It also said it launched drone strikes against Eritrean troops in the region.”
“It” is Ethiopia’s army. We found no such statement.